CCM Joins NISN and RGC as a Low Float Runner With TOP or HKD Potential

We recently wrote up two stocks - Nisun International Enterprise Development Group Co., Ltd (NISN) and Regencell Bioscience Holdings Limited (RGC) - while also calling NISN the most undervalued stock in the world. These stocks exhibit traits that make them potential TOP Financial Group Limited (TOP) and AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD) type of runners. RGC has increased 5% since the July 25th write up while NISN has increased 25%. We remain bullish on both. But another small float Asian-based stock is starting to run, which could create more problems for people who tend to short these stocks while trying to blanket the sector as a scam. Concord Medical Services Holdings Limited (CCM) shot up 27% yesterday on 213,000 shares traded, making it the perfect play to bet on a massive rise.  If you like our picks you can follow this blog by clicking the follow button on the top of the left hand panel. We have 1016 followers on here as well as 120 followers on our Canadian blog. You can also follow us on Twitter @StockTradePicks which has over 5,000 followers.

CCM just undertook an ADS ratio change, equating to a 1 for 10 reverse split. With this change, it now has less than 3 million shares outstanding and just like NISN and RGC trades like a stock with a very low float. Two months ago it spiked from $7.90 to $21 in one day, and looked like it was about to do it again yesterday as the stock briefly spiked over $10.

NISN is a value play while RGC is a trading vehicle. CCM is a value play but in a different way from NISN. In an SEC filing yesterday, CCM mentioned its subsidiary Concord Healthcare Group which is publicly listed on the Hong Kong Exchange under the symbol 2453.HK. In the subsequent events section at the very end of CCM's 20-F filing, it mentioned how 2453.HK went public on January 9th. This is the result since then:

Concord Healthcare Group has been on fire, rising from its HKD $14.28 IPO price to over HKD $48 today. This is CCM's YTD chart:

How much sense does it make that CCM's subsidiary is up over 3x but other than quick spikes, CCM's price is flat YTD? It makes absolutely no sense. We think CCM was starting to break out in late June as we see it start to track 2453.HK when it made 52-week highs over $50. The news of the ADS ratio change scared some traders, but now that the change is behind us, CCM looks like a low float value play. Especially as 2453.HK has broken its mini-pullback downtrend and looks set to create new 52-week highs shortly. 

Disclosure: We are long NISN, RGC, CCM

The Two Best Candidates To Run Like TOP or HKD With Verified Shorts To Squeeze

Most people who are reading this know about TOP Financial Group Limited (TOP) and AMTD Digital Inc. (HKD). The former ran from $6 to as high as $250 in three days a little over a year ago and the latter ran from $20 to $2,500 in a couple of weeks shortly after its IPO in late July and early August 2022. There is not just one, but two low-float, light volume and proven volatile Asian listings that have a shot at going parabolic like these stocks. Not only that, both of these stocks have the same admitted short on them. Meaning if one runs, the other is likely to follow as the short will be subject to a domino effect of margin calls. Those two stocks are Nisun International Enterprise Development Group Co., Ltd (NISN) and Regencell Bioscience Holdings Limited (RGC). This short is spamming various fintwit platforms, trashing both companies, so we know they are desperate. If you like our picks you can follow this blog by clicking the follow button on the top of the left hand panel. We have 1016 followers on here as well as 120 followers on our Canadian blog. You can also follow us on Twitter @StockTradePicks which has over 5,000 followers.

Update 7/29: With RGC up 35% and NISN up 22% on Friday, shorts are in even greater trouble. NISN is particularly interesting as it is rising on only a couple hundred thousand in daily volume. When LPA exploded to $500 in late May, it did so on 200,000 shares. Light volume stocks are the ones with the best chance to explode in price. 

Update 7/30: RGC and NISN continued their rise on Monday. 9% and 11% respectively. Though they did pull back from their day highs. Notice the strong correlation in their charts. Shorts were trying to push both down in the afternoon but then both shot up near the end of the day. Squeeze potential remains strong with both of them as shorts are getting desperate. 

The short in question runs the Reddit forum Vampire Stocks. Their analysis on NISN is filled with errors that they admit exist in the comment section when users bring them up. Their analysis on RGC claims that they are now short but admitted that they badly lost on the company in the past. So they have been subject to short squeezes before but apparently haven't learn their lesson on the exact same stock and want to do it again in order to fulfill their loony bin fantasies of all Chinese listings being run by criminals.

We consider NISN to be the most undervalued stock in the world. Revenue growth was 65% and EPS was $4.46 for 2023 while the company ended the year with cash per share of $29. Working capital is $182.2 million, or over $45 per share. There is absolutely no reason for this stock to be trading less than $50, at that would imply a P/E ratio of just 11x and trading at barely over 1x of its working capital. With the CEO and Board of Directors looking at ways to maximize shareholder value, they could easily enact a buyback plan or special dividend that sends the stock flying while putting hardly a dent into the substantial cash balance. 

Since that write up from a couple of weeks ago, the stock has started turning back up after a pullback into the $7's. It closed at $8.34 yesterday, the highest close it has had in over a week. The one-month chart looks really strong for a breakout as the mini-downtrend from the pullback has been broken:

RGC is on the opposite spectrum in terms of fundamentals. As an early stage biotech, it has no operations and doesn't seem to be doing much of anything other than early stage work. According to the short, it's a worthless shell. But that's okay, because what we are looking for is a tight float and volatile trading for a potential squeeze. We aren't looking for long term fundamentals here, just like on HKD and TOP. The CEO spent over a million dollars to purchase shares on the open market back in 2021, despite already owning about 80% of the shares outstanding. 

The stock has already gone on a wild ride from $3 to $30, and has since pulled back into the $10's in early morning trading today. That's okay though. Why? Because it did a very similar pullback two years ago:

August 20, 2021 is very reminiscent of the trading that took place two days ago. Yesterday's pullback was similar to August 23 while today is another quiet day trying to form that base. We will see if in another day or two if RGC screams into the $40's like it did back then. If this is a boiler room pump and dump like the shorts claim it is, then logic would suggest that the same boiler room can get the same level of activity as last time. One key difference is that volume has been much lighter. This is important because the most notorious runners (HKD, LPA) do so on extremely light volume. RGC traded barely over a million shares each of the past two days. Unlike "small float" dilution scam type of stocks which allegedly have only a few million in the float, but will trade 10's of millions of shares in a day and go nowhere.  RGC trades like a stock with only a 1.5 million float. So does NISN with its 3 million float, trading a few hundred thousand shares or less each day. That actually gives both stocks credibility. 

Shorts can scream pump and dump with Aegis and Maxim until the cows come home, but neither of these stocks trade like traditional Aegis and Maxim pump and dump dilution scams. Both of them have had stable shares outstanding for years. Their "pumps" are relatively stable, not like stocks that go from $1.00 to $10 then back to $1.00 on 100 million in volume within a matter of a day or two.  

Funny enough, if RGC and NISN announced a business combination, both of those stocks would absolutely go flying. NISN has the cash and fundamentals to support a high valuation while RGC has a story that has been proven to get the market's attention. That would destroy the shorts. 

Disclosure: We are long NISN, RGC

The Most Undervalued Stock in the World

 On Friday, Nisun International Enterprise Development Group Co., Ltd (NISN) rose 52% to $9.15 after releasing its 2023 annual results. These results are spectacular in terms of revenue growth and EPS generation. In addition to that, the company is trading below cash and book value. This deal seems too good to be true, but it isn't. NISN is likely the most undervalued stock in the world. With only 4 million shares outstanding and a 3 million float, this one could be the next Asian HKD-like runner, except with the numbers to back it up. This stock fundamentally justifies a price over $50. As it has risen from less than $4.00 at the start of the month, it might finally be getting the recognition it deserves. If you like our picks you can follow this blog by clicking the follow button on the top of the left hand panel. We have 1015 followers on here as well as 120 followers on our Canadian blog. You can also follow us on Twitter @StockTradePicks which has over 5,000 followers.

From the news release:

Nisun International Reports Financial Results for Fiscal Year 2023

 

Nisun Achieves 65% Revenue Growth and Ends the Year with $29.0 Cash Per Share

 

Shanghai, China – July 12, 2024 – Nisun International Enterprise Development Group Co., Ltd. (“Nisun International” or the “Company”) (NASDAQ: NISN), a technology and industry driven integrated supply chain solutions provider, today announced its financial results for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2023.

 

Financial Highlights:

 

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Revenue: Total revenue for the year was $386.7 million, representing a 65% increase compared to $234.2 million in 2022.

 

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Gross Profit: Gross profit increased to $40.0 million from $37.0 million in the previous year.

 

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Net Income: Net income for 2023 was $17.7 million.

 

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Cash and Cash Equivalents: The Company ended the year with $114.5 million in cash and cash equivalents.

 

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Earnings per Share (EPS): The Company reported earnings of $4.46 per share, with a cash per share value of $29.0.

 

CEO’s Comments:

 

Xin Liu, CEO of Nisun International, commented, “We are thrilled to report another year of outstanding financial performance, underscoring the success of our strategic initiatives and operational excellence. Our revenue growth of 65% is a testament to our robust supply chain solutions. We have made significant strides in expanding our supply chain capabilities, diversifying into other agricultural products. These efforts have positioned us well for sustained growth and profitability.”

 

Mr. Liu continued, “Despite our strong financial performance, substantial cash reserves of $29.0 per share, and robust earnings, our stock trades at just over one times annual earnings by the end of June. We believe this significantly undervalues our company. The Board of Directors and I are actively considering strategic alternatives to unlock shareholder value and better align our market valuation with the intrinsic value of our company. Our strong cash position and ongoing growth initiatives provide a solid foundation for these efforts.”

 

Operational Highlights:

 

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Supply Chain Trading and Solutions: Nisun International continues to enhance its supply chain trading and financing solutions capabilities, leveraging state-of-the-art technology to streamline operations and reduce costs. The Company successfully managed the daily supply of 3.6 to 6 million eggs to major online platforms across key regions.

 

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Geographical Expansion: The Company’s supply chain operations now span multiple regions, enabling delivery of a diverse range of products. This extensive network ensures seamless operations and strengthens Nisun’s market presence.

 

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Diversification: Nisun has expanded its supply chain solutions to include other agricultural products, positioning the Company for substantial growth in the agricultural sector.

 

 

 

Looking Ahead:

 

Mr. Liu added, “Our commitment to innovation and excellence remains unwavering as we continue to drive growth and create value for our shareholders. The strategic expansion of our supply chain solution will enable us to meet the evolving needs of our customers and capitalize on new market opportunities. We are excited about the future and confident in our ability to achieve even greater success.”

 

Revenue growth was 65%, EPS was $4.46 and cash per share is $29. Working capital is $182.2 million, or over $45 per share. There is absolutely no reason for this stock to be trading less than $50, at that would imply a P/E ratio of just 11x and trading at barely over 1x of its working capital. With the CEO and Board of Directors looking at ways to maximize shareholder value, they could easily enact a buyback plan or special dividend that sends the stock flying while putting hardly a dent into the substantial cash balance. 

Despite numerous Chinese and Asian-based pumps going to insane valuation levels, this stock appears to suffer from a lack of visibility or people just think there is something fishy going on, despite having a PCAOB-compliant audit. However, with the financials showing the business growth is strong, fundamental valuation is very cheap, the leadership team is looking to unlock greater shareholder value, numerous Chinese stocks rising to insane levels and that NISN has only a 3 million float and generally trades only a few thousand shares each day, this is an ideal play to look for a 5x to 100x bagger.  

Disclosure: We are long NISN

A Reverse Split Microcap Play That Could Go On A Massive Run

There have been numerous small float penny stocks that have had incredible reversals and sustained runs lately. Some of them on little to no news. Inspire Veterinary Partners, Inc. (IVP), Zapp Electric Vehicles Group Limited (ZAPP), Soligenix, Inc. (SNGX), Longeveron Inc. (LGVN) and NaaS Technology Inc. (NAAS) just to name a few. Kazia Therapeutics Limited (KZIA) is an example today that is up around 300%, but that's on great news from a Glioblastoma trial that might be worth a look as a multi-day runner to $2+. Like all of these stocks it has the risk of dilution. But right now even with the risk of dilution and even post-financing announcements, that has not stopped these stocks from continued runs so we don't see how KZIA should be any different. One stock that fits the bill perfectly to these others is Beneficient (BENF). After running over 100% on July 5th, its pullback into the mid $3's is an excellent level to buy in for a lottery ticket type of purchase. If you like our picks you can follow this blog by clicking the follow button on the top of the left hand panel. We have 1015 followers on here as well as 120 followers on our Canadian blog. You can also follow us on Twitter @StockTradePicks which has over 5,000 followers.

BENF announced its year-end results on Tuesday and they were absolute garbage. Think of this company kind of like a B. Riley Financial, Inc. (RILY) or Upstart Holdings, Inc. (UPST) on crack and then you will understand why it has struggled since it went public. The market initially reacted negatively, bringing the stock down to $3.03. However, by the end of the day it raced back up to $3.95, actually finishing green. Wednesday's trading has seen it bounce between $3.50 and $4.00 on light volume and large spreads. This trading indicates that it's the mirror image of a "sell on news" event we see with runners. BENF's performance has been bad. It has an open SEPA and going concern clause. But it has already dropped from a reverse split-adjusted 52-week high of just under $300 to all the way down to $2 before the slight bounce. It looks like the bad news is priced in, at least for now. Almost certainly the company will tap into the SEPA at some point in the future, but it will need to do so on a high volume, high pump day. It doesn't look like it happened on July 5th, so there will be another day that it will run. 

ZAPP looks like BENF's closest comparable. An absolute financial disaster that has tanked massively since going public but has recovered considerably since its reverse split fueled lows. On June 5th, ZAPP increased from $0.71 to $2.43 on over 54 million volume before pulling back to under $1.50. It shot up again on June 20th before a quiet period of low volume and large spread trading around $2.00. Since the start of this month it has not looked back and has hit nearly $20. That is the type of trading we are looking for on BENF. We think it's a good idea to buy a lottery ticket position then add to it once volume and price starts gaining momentum again. It will be quick but those who are watching it closely should be able to capture an awesome run.

Disclosure: We are long BENF and KZIA

Sanofi is Buying Vigil Neuroscience at $7.44 and So Should You

This past Thursday, Vigil Neuroscience, Inc. (VIGL) rose 18% as it announced a $40 million strategic investment from Sanofi (SNY). The stock pulled back 10% to $4.00 on Friday. This represents an outstanding buying opportunity as the $40 million investment is at the common equity equivalent of $7.44. It adds significant length to VIGL's cash runway, eliminating any dilution risk for at least the next year. At $4.00, the company is barely trading above its cash per share, representing tremendous value given Sanofi's involvement. If you like our picks you can follow this blog by clicking the follow button on the top of the left hand panel. We have 1015 followers on here as well as 120 followers on our Canadian blog. You can also follow us on Twitter @StockTradePicks which has over 5,000 followers.

From the news release:

- Sanofi to invest $40 million at an as-converted price of $7.44 per share of common stock-

- Sanofi to receive an exclusive right of first negotiation for license of Company’s small molecule TREM2 agonist program, including VG-3927, currently in phase 1 clinical studies -

- Company expects proceeds to extend cash runway into 2026 -

WATERTOWN, Mass., June 27, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Vigil Neuroscience, Inc. (Nasdaq: VIGL), a clinical-stage biotechnology company committed to harnessing the power of microglia for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, is pleased to announce that Sanofi (Nasdaq: SNY) has made a $40 million strategic investment in the Company at an as-converted price of $7.44 per share of common stock. Sanofi will purchase 537,634 of the Company’s Series A non-voting preferred shares, each share of which shall be convertible into ten shares of common stock. The Company will use the proceeds to fund its research and development activities.

“We are excited by this strategic investment from Sanofi, one of the world’s leading biopharmaceutical companies, for our research and development programs,” said Ivana Magovčević-Liebisch, Ph.D., J.D., President and Chief Executive Officer of Vigil. “We view Sanofi’s investment in Vigil as a validation of our promising precision medicine approach led by our two differentiated TREM2 modalities, iluzanebart and VG-3927, and Sanofi has provided valuable capital to help fund our pipeline. We look forward to the opportunity to work with Sanofi as we continue to advance our small molecule TREM2 agonist program.”

“Recent discoveries have highlighted the role of microglial signaling and neuroinflammation in neurodegenerative diseases. TREM2 is a well credentialed microglia target in this context,” said Erik Wallstroem, Sanofi's Global Head of Neurology Development. “The investment in Vigil strengthens our commitment to immunoscience and neuroimmunology.”

In connection with the equity investment, Vigil has granted Sanofi the exclusive right of first negotiation (ROFN) for an exclusive license, grant or transfer of rights to research, develop, manufacture and commercialize the Company’s small molecule TREM2 agonist program, including its clinical candidate, VG-3927. VG-3927 is currently being evaluated in a phase 1 clinical study for the potential treatment of Alzheimer’s disease.

Based on current projections, the Company expects that the proceeds from Sanofi’s investment will extend its cash runway into 2026.

This $40 million is added to the $101 million in cash and $85 million in working capital the company had as of Matrch 31, 2024. Assuming full conversion of the preferred shares into common, that leads to 43 million shares. Working capital would be $2.90 per share, meaning enterprise value is just over $1.00. Prior to this deal, working capital per share was $2.26 and the stock price was $3.78. Just accounting for the delta in the working capital thanks to the cash injection at double the equity price, the stock should have added $0.64 and be trading at over $4.40. Never mind the fact that the investment came from one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world in clear support of the company's pipeline. 

Not only does the investment greatly improve the company's books and eliminate the need for dilution in the short run, in paves a path to where Sanofi has the right of first negotiation for a larger licensing deal that will almost certainly be greater than VIGL's market cap. Alzheimer’s drug candidates have been controversial with companies like Anavex Life Sciences Corp. (AVXL) and Cassava Sciences, Inc.(SAVA) experiencing high volatility and garnering large short interest and Biogen Inc. (BIIB) giving up on its Aduhelm program. VIGL is perfectly positioned to be the next hot Alzheimer’s stock with a high floor backed up by its strong cash position and support from Sanofi. Wedbush recently upgraded its target on VIGL to $23, and we think that is a reasonable target to have. 

Disclosure: We are long VIGL