On January 22, we announced a bullish call on Energy Plug Technologies Corp. (PLUG.CN) (PLGGF) with a $0.50 target along with a follow up blog in October related to its partnership with Quantum eMotion Corp. (QNC.V) (QNCCF). We are upgrading that target to $1.50 as our initial $0.50 target has been hit. The pullback to $0.36 looks like a prime buy in opportunity as the company has been aggressively announcing revenue generating contracts. Some could say that PLUG has been riding the coattails of QNC. In reality, it's PLUG that is enabling some of QNC's first revenue generating opportunities and introduced a real world application of QNC's technology to the market place. QNC has a market cap of $700 million and that is cheap compared to other quantum startups. A $1.50 target price for PLUG puts it at a fraction of QNC's valuation. If you like our picks you can follow this blog by clicking the follow button on the top of the left hand panel. We have 1038 followers on here as well as 124 followers on our Canadian blog. You can also follow us on X @StockTradePicks which has over 5,000 followers.
We were engaged by PLUG to provide coverage after our reports on Blockmate Ventures Inc. (MATE.V) (MATEF) garnered positive attention. As such, PLUG turned into a sympathy play of MATE. As the price of MATE has unfortunately stagnated while PLUG has gone wild, we have seen the fortunes reverse. MATE jumped from $0.07 to $0.14 in a few days alongside PLUG's first move above $0.50. It has since pulled back to $0.10, but the opportunity should be clear. It moved on low volume so it wouldn't take much to get it trading back above $0.20 again. We expect that as PLUG moves up, MATE will get some more buyers. And if MATE has its own deals to announce, a quick move to $0.50 like what PLUG did won't be out of the question. The blueprint has been laid out and both stocks have a similar float. We have a $5.00 target on MATE based on it achieving one million users on its Hivello platform. It's still a long way off but the clear business model and previously stated user base goals makes a $5.00 target possible. As the PLUG business model becomes clearer, it's easier to make more aggressive price targets on it as well.
PLUG was the first time we accepted compensation for coverage. Previous to that we said no, but we had to say yes to this company after getting an opportunity to participate in last year's private placement and understanding the unique leveraging of the technology and partnership with Malahat First Nations. We were quiet for a while as the company lacked news and a clear focus. As shareholders who bought a significant stake in the open market well in excess of any compensation we got, we were not happy as it sat around $0.10, but parked it to give time for the company to develop. It turns out that this was the right move.
During the lull, PLUG laid the groundwork with the Malahat and QNC partnership and is now aggressively pursuing revenue generating contracts. That's in addition to a revamped management team and a coming rebrand to "Aegis Critical Energy Defence Corp.". This will more accurately reflect the company's evolution into a provider of secure, AI-enhanced, and quantum-optimized energy systems serving defense, industrial, grid, and government markets. Particularly in remote locations where grid infrastructure may not exist and security is paramount. A few months ago, PLUG's proposed business model was all over the place. The company even had crypto tickers on its website like it was pretending to be a crypto play. Now it has the right focus and investor and market messaging. This will soon be reflected in the bottom line and stock price.
Up to the date of its latest financials for June 30, 2025, the company did not generate any revenue. Even with the announcement of purchase orders last year. That will change as the company announced its first sale in the United States (very different wording from purchase order) of three Secure Energy Storage Systems in August for $290,000 and followed that up with a second sale of an ESS for an undisclosed amount in October. The company also announced a pre-order for 20 units with delivery expected in early 2026. Assuming each unit is close to $100,000, the total revenue for these three announcements would be about $2 million. How that revenue is split between PLUG and its partners will be known in future financial filings, but we believe that these contracts merely scratch the surface. There is an expectation from bulls that the company will be announcing $10's of millions worth of contracts in the near future, which would justify a much higher stock price than today. PLUG has once claimed a $700 million sales pipeline. As a pre-revenue company that lacked focus and couldn't get beyond the purchase order stage, that seemed like a pipe dream. Now that PLUG has partnered with QNC, Malahat and SEETEL to develop something truly unique in terms of a secure ESS, this number can be taken more seriously.
The groundbreaking of Canada's gigafactory in B.C. between Malahat and PLUG received mainstream media coverage from Global News. This is not hype to pump a penny stock that only the bottom rung of Bay Street will care about. Given the recent ruling in a B.C. Court regarding Aboriginal land titles and Canada's long-standing battle to bog itself down in bureaucracy to never build anything, it can't be understated how valuable a First Nation-backed infrastructure project like this is. It can be used for consumption by the general public that is looking for some actual evidence of building back Canada's manufacturing base independent of the United States, and not just empty "elbows up" rhetoric. PLUG is well positioned to attract mainstream investor support.
Given the exciting times and hopes that this stock becomes the next QNC, one might wonder why there has been any selling at this level. We believe that the pullback and volatility around the company's stock price since it surpassed our $0.50 target is related to the exercise of warrants rather than people dumping the stock to exit the position. As part of the company's attempt at becoming more transparent and investor friendly, it has included two charts in its Q2 2025 SEDAR filings that very conveniently track the status of the warrants and its fully diluted share count. As we strive to provide accurate information to our readers, we can attest to how frustrating some companies can be with respect to reporting this information in a convenient format, so these charts are a breath of fresh air:
Approximately 10 million warrants were exercised between June 30th and October 28th, leaving another 25 million to be exercised. Presumably most of those warrants were exercised on or after October 14th when the stock price was high enough to justify doing so. PLUG's
monthly progress report for October shows an updated share count of 122.9 million, meaning an additional 5 million warrants were exercised in those final few days of the month after October 28th.
A total of 11.7 million warrants and options were exercised during October. Considering the pace of exercise seen in October, the first third of November has likely resulted in another several million being exercised. This is where the bullish argument has a two-pronged approach. Potential selling pressure created by the exercise of warrants is traditionally used as fodder by bears to create panic. Especially on a company that has 35 million of them expiring in a few months. PLUG already absorbed 15 million of those prior to November 1 and likely another several million since. Yet the stock price has remained steady in the mid-$0.30's after a rise from $0.10 a few weeks prior. There is no tank, in fact, the opposite. The second way of looking at it is that there is a ton of buying pressure. That pressure has been capped by warrant overhang. Imagine what will happen when that warrant overhang dries up? One could suggest that would happen in February when all warrants expire, but given the fast pace at which they are being exercised, we think this share overhang will dry up much sooner than that. Those waiting to buy in after the warrants expire are taking the risk that the warrants won't have effectively been swallowed up long before then and that the company won't have some follow up news to drive the stock up further. The warrants are also shoring up the company's balance sheet, with $1.5 million in cash being added to the balance sheet in October and another approximately $2.5 million to come. The company has never been in a stronger position than it is today.
The traditional thought process of retail traders is "Why should I buy this stock so high when warrants can be exercised low?" The people who invested in this stock at that time did it when the company's risk profile was much less favorable than it is today. Now the company is ready to sell a uniquely secure energy storage system that won't be susceptible to cyber attacks. This story is a developing one and will garner positive attention after those warrants and past dilution at lower prices are long forgotten. It's up to retail investors who come across the story now if they want to buy in with a manageable position or take the risk that they will regret not doing so down the road.
This leads us to our updated $1.50 target. While it's difficult to assess the value of a pre-revenue company using traditional valuation techniques, our $0.50 target was hit. This makes an upgrade to $1.50 more legitimate. Assuming all the warrants and options will be exercised, a $1.50 stock price results in a market cap of $224 million with working capital being approximately $5 million. A market cap of $224 million is significantly less than QNC and the rest of the quantum plays which have valuations over $1 billion and in many instances are also pre-revenue but with a much less clear and imminent path to revenue like PLUG and QNC. The partnership with PLUG and QNC enables QNC to move into its revenue-generating phase, so QNC shareholders will be supportive of PLUG and will likely allocate some funds towards it as well. Assuming a $100,000 price tag per each ESS, it would take 1,000 unit sales annually to garner $100 million in revenue. That should not be hard to achieve given the prerogative of spending on defense and "Canada First" by the Canadian government. Along with the numerous private interests such as data centers that would require cyber attack proof energy systems. Nor would a gigafactory be built if a thousand units a year wasn't an achievable expectation. Assuming the $100 million gross figure will be split among PLUG, QNC, Malahat and SEETEL, let's assume that PLUG may be entitled to half of that revenue, or $50 million. A $1.50 stock price would lead to a 4x to 5x revenue multiple, a reasonable valuation for a growth industry like this. While these numbers are still speculative, like MATE, at least there is a clear path to achieve them.
Disclosure: We are long MATE.V. We are long PLUG.CN. We have been compensated in the past to write about PLUG, but have also engaged in open market buying and purchased shares in excess of the value of the compensation.
