We have written numerous blogs about Blockmate Ventures Inc. (MATE.V)(MATEF) over the last several weeks. Since first mentioning it on November 13, the stock has ran an impressive 280%. Though it has pulled back quite materially over the last several days. We have made bullish claims, including a short term target of $0.50 and a long term target of $5.00 that implies a billion dollar valuation. After Hivello released its token IDO, our confidence that it will eventually reach that $5.00 target has increased. In fact, some of the statements made within the IDO implies a target north of $500, not just $5. While the stock fell two cents short of our $0.50 target, we now have high confidence to say that it should pass that target before the token generation event on February 11th. Once this initial $0.50 target has been surpassed, we will increase our targets, with the understanding that Hivello must back up its words with successful actions. If you like our picks you can follow this blog by clicking the follow button on the top of the left hand panel. We have 1028 followers on here as well as 121 followers on our Canadian blog. You can also follow us on X @StockTradePicks which has over 5,000 followers.
Review the token IDO here. We suggest that readers carefully read through all of it. However, we are going to highlight the pieces that we find the most important. TSXV companies have a history of making big claims that never come to fruition. The crypto regulatory landscape is a "Wild West" just like the TSXV. However, while Canadian retail investors tend to be dumb and helpless, crypto investors - at least those who invest seriously and not in meme coins - are more savvy. If Hivello makes a statement that isn't backed up by a reasonable path to getting there, it will be eviscerated. While Hivello has made some claims that would take years to pan out, there are others that must occur within the two weeks leading up to the TGE. This is not some kind of investor presentation with empty promises without a defined timeline.
The first set of claims made in the IDO that we would like to highlight relate to future fundamental outlook:
- Aggressive User Growth: Beta application already has more than 12,000 nodes acquired since December 2024. Hivello long term goal 100M users.
- Simplified DePIN Access: Hivello makes DePIN mining easy, aiming to onboard 100 million new users to crypto.
- Effortless Passive Income: Set up Hivello on idle devices to earn $30-$300 monthly without active involvement.
- Hivello collects a 10%-50% commission or management fee on DePIN tokens mined through the app. This ensures the platform remains free for users while generating sustainable revenue by sharing in the success of mined tokens.
The 10%-50% fee was previously known. The $30-$300 monthly revenue is a slight upgrade from $20-$300 per month. But the most important piece of information is the long term goal of 100 million users. When we came to our $5.00 long term target, it was based on Hivello achieving 750,000 users. We now know that Hivello's goal is over 100 times larger.
Assuming a $50 monthly earnings per user and 20% average revenue share, that would be $10 in ARPU for Hivello. 100 million users would lead to $1 billion in revenue per month, or $12 billion per year. Applying an 8.3x multiple leads to a nice even $100 billion USD valuation. Half of which would belong to MATE. Based on 200 million shares outstanding, that is a $500 USD price per share, or $720 per share in CAD. These numbers are insane. This is 2005 Facebook level. But it's not us who are coming up with these targets. It's the company saying it with a straight face and serious intent on the IDO. Even applying just a 1% chance of this happening, or Hivello getting 1% of the way there, implies a $7.20 stock price. This thing could rise up above $5.00 and still be considered cheap or in the early stages by the end of the year if it makes serious headway into making these user numbers believable.
The second set of claims in the IDO we would like to highlight are short term "hype" factors:
- Hivello’s primary strategy is to create a “wave of green” in the lead up to the IDO and through to TGE, ideally hitting peak FOMO at TGE ensuring that demand and buy pressure remains strong after TGE.
- Partnership PRs and investment round PRs to be issued leading to a crescendo close to TGE. These PRs, blog posts and articles will form the foundation stone of the narrative and story that the KOLs will amplify.
- Hivello is working with a KOL manager and a team of more than 40 KOLs to help amplify the message about the Hivello application and our TGE. Additionally, Hivello is actively reaching out to grassroots crypto communities around the world to work in a partner capacity to help them inform their members.
- Current partners include: Animoca Brands, Klink, Mysterium, IoTeX, Hotspotty, XYO, YGG, Coins.ph, Holo, ClusterProtocol, DePIN Association and many others.
There were more points that generally fall under the category of "marketing and outreach". But the goal is simple. The goal is blatant. They use the word FOMO right in the IDO. They want to create maximum hype leading into the TGE to ensure it opens strong with a lot of liquidity.
Here is the issue. We have heard complaints from other shareholders that the company doesn't do enough to release news or create hype centered around the stock. In order for the token to by hyped, that MUST change. Hivello management cannot expect the TGE to reach "peak FOMO" if the stock is stuck around $0.25 to $0.30, flat for nearly a month. With a lot of whiny losers online complaining about how bad the stock is because it's not making new 52-week highs every day.
The IDO mentions 40 KOLs or "key opinion leaders". We know the identity of one of them. Tony G. We have written about Tony G's strategic investment into Blockmate. Read that for a primer on who he is. He has tweeted out our article to his followers on X. With the extreme success of Sol Strategies Inc. (HODL.CN), he knows better than anyone how a strong stock price can drive FOMO success on the crypto side of things. The 39 others would likely have some idea about that as well.
If Hivello wants maximum FOMO heading into the TGE, the stock price is going to have to go up. A lot. How high? $0.50? $1.00? $2.50? We don't know how high, but we know the higher it goes, the more legitimacy and FOMO will run off into the TGE. The weaker it is, the less likely the TGE will be at peak FOMO and the bigger the uphill battle the Hivello team will have in maximizing FOMO on the TGE when the stock price has sputtered.
We have led the horse to water here. Readers are going to have to be the ones to take a drink. MATE needs to be strong heading into the TGE. Regardless of whether the price of Bitcoin is $90,000 or $110,000. Regardless of whether the S&P is above or below $6,000. And regardless of whether other hype stocks like QNC are below $0.50 or above $1.00 at that time. Think hard about the levers that can be pulled to guarantee that the stock price is up. Obvious hint: Someone with a big bank account has to be there on standby to take out any sell orders that are overhang on the stock. We are not here to guarantee or promise anything, but present a thesis that we think has merit. We are highly confident that leading into the TGE, the stock price should be above our $0.50 target.
Disclosure: We are long MATE.V
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