Beginning Price: $0.81
Gain Since Inception: 1,306%
Upside Potential: 76%
Market Cap: $2,141 million
Beginning Price: $5.53
Current Price: $4.93
Gain Since Inception: -11%
Upside Potential: 204%
Market Cap: $31 million
Our target price on OCGN is based on 25% of NVAX's market cap of $15.72 billion. A market cap of $3.93 billion for OCGN would lead to a stock price of over $20.
Our target price on GOVX is based on 15% of VXRT's market cap of $656 million. A market cap of $98 million would lead to a stock price of over $15.
Last week we reiterated our bullish calls on Ocugen, Inc. (OCGN) and GeoVax Labs, Inc. (GOVX) in OCGN And GOVX Are Two Cheap COVID Vaccine Plays. OCGN doubled from $6.50 in the two days since this piece and has gone up 14x from our bullish call at $0.81 in December. OCGN just closed on a $100 million financing at $10. While getting this cash is excellent news for the company's ability to execute on its vaccine strategy, we think this will put a temporary breather on the stock price and we will be looking to re-enter around $10. The focus should switch to GOVX at its financing that took place at $6.25 has been fully absorbed into the float and GOVX has a very strong balance sheet with $20 million in cash despite having only a $30 million market cap. Investors have the chance to buy in well below this level right now while COVID and other vaccine news is imminent. GOVX is reporting Q1 results and providing a corporate update on May 6th, so we think it could rise leading into this date in anticipation. In addition to this, GOVX offers a 204% upside to our target price while OCGN's is "down" to just 76% upside to our target thanks to its recent move from $6.50.
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GOVX is in pre-trial for its COVID vaccine, but animal test results are expected in Q2. GOVX has several other vaccine data updates due in Q2 including Malaria and Lassa Fever. It also has early stage clinical development for Zika and Ebola and is in Phase 2 for HIV, demonstrating the broad utility of its MVA-VLP technology platform. An analyst report said the following about GOVX's COVID vaccine candidate:
GeoVax’s SARS‐CoV‐2 (COVID‐19) vaccine is based on its GV‐MVA‐VLP™ technology, enabling insertion of multiple antigen fragments, potentially allowing for broad‐spectrum virus prevention. In contrast to certain competitor vaccines that only target the COVID‐19 spike protein, GeoVax’s vaccines are designed to provoke a response to multiple COVID‐19 antigens—potentially translating into these vaccines being less susceptible to viral mutations. GeoVax’s vaccines are intended to be used as either a primary vaccine or to boost other COVID‐19 vaccines as part of vaccination strategies to provide immunity to a range of SARS‐CoV‐2 variants.
On January 11, 2021, GeoVax Labs, Inc. announced that the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health (NIH), had awarded the Company a Small Business Innovative Research (SBIR) grant in support of its development of a vaccine against SARS‐CoV‐2. The Phase 1 grant, titled, “Preclinical Development of GV‐MVA‐VLP Vaccines Against COVID‐19,” will support the ongoing design, construction, and preclinical testing of GeoVax’s vaccine candidates in preparation for human clinical trials. The efficacy testing will be performed in collaboration with the University of Texas Medical Branch (UTMB).
Additionally, October 26, 2020, the Company announced the signing of a Patent and Biological Materials License Agreement with the NIAID in support of GeoVax’s development of a vaccine against SARS‐CoV‐2. The Patent License Agreement to GeoVax includes access to NIAID’s patent rights in the stabilized SPIKE protein, which is the protein that SARS‐CoV‐2 uses to enter human tissue.
GeoVax has designed and constructed four COVID‐19 vaccine candidates to date, with the goal that one will provide a single‐dose, universal vaccine effective against multiple coronavirus strains. Preclinical small animal studies for the first candidate are currently being conducted in collaboration with researchers at the University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston (UTMB), with GeoVax anticipating to accelerate small animal testing (with initial results expected near term). Furthermore, GeoVax continues active discussions and negotiations related to additional funding support, as well as securing the necessary manufacturing resources to proceed into clinical development as soon as possible.
Despite their being vaccines that have entered various stages of clinical testing (using different approaches and vector platforms than GeoVax), there is increasing evidence that alternative vaccine approaches, including those from various cohort populations will be necessary to successfully address COVID‐19 and various coronaviruses. GeoVax expects to be ready to move into the clinic with its candidate during 2022. This timing, however, will depend on what the Company reports with its animal results, which could come in the latter part of first quarter or into early part of second quarter.
This is important because GOVX's vaccine technology is far different than existing vaccines out there. The GeoVax vaccine intends to be a one-shot vaccine effective against mutations by provoking a response to multiple COVID‐19 antigens. As we have already seen a rise in the double mutant Indian variant, it's only a matter of time before similar time of mutations appear as well, with the effectiveness of current vaccines being unknown.
GOVX is at the very early stages of COVID vaccine, but considering that it is more than just a COVID vaccine player, we think that it being valued at 15% of the market cap of Vaxart, Inc. (VXRT) is fair. That would lead to a $98 million market cap, or $15 target price.
GOVX also has warrants under the symbol GOVXW. These warrants have a strike price of $5.00 and expire in September 2025, so there is plenty of time. They offer leveraged upside because they trade at $1.14. If the stock price triples to $15, the warrants will be worth $10, or about 8x their current price.
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Mastering Microcaps: Strategies, Trends, and Stock Selection (Bloomberg Professional Library)
The Little Black Book of Microcap Investing: Beat the Market with NASDAQ/AMEX Microcap Stocks, OTCBB Penny Stocks, and Pink Sheet Stocks
Microcap Magic: Why The Biggest Returns Are In Stocks You've Never Heard Of
How to Day Trade for a Living: A Beginner’s Guide to Trading Tools and Tactics, Money Management, Discipline and Trading Psychology
How to Day Trade: A Detailed Guide to Day Trading Strategies, Risk Management, and Trader Psychology
A Beginner's Guide to Day Trading Online (2nd edition)
Stock Investing for Beginners: Marijuana Stocks
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The dividend stock report from dividendstocksonline.com
Goldmasterinvesting.com Ocean Of Gold Report for the top 15 gold mining companies
Trader Review
The Trader's Academy Club
The Wealth Builder's Club from beatthemarketanalyzer.com
MyBB: A Forum For Investors and Traders
Spartan Trader Forex Academy Live Daily Trading Room
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