Monday 14 May 2018

ANFI: An Extreme Value Play

Since April 26 in our report titled "The Next VTVT-Like Runners And Buyout Candidates" and followed up by "Breakout Alert: PRTA To Fill That Gap" and "Breakout Alert: PRTA's Upward Move Is Accelerating", Prothena Corporation plc (PRTA) has been a featured top pick. After moving 44% from $11.79 to $17.01 during that time, we have decided to take profits on this trade. We still think PRTA can go higher and challenge the $20 mark, but think there are even better opportunities out there at this time so we are redeploying the capital elsewhere.  We are up to 612 followers despite not giving out a lot of alerts, a fact that we think is indicative of a diligent and prudent stock picking history. If you like our picks you can follow our blog by clicking the follow button on the top of the left hand panel. You can also follow us on Twitter @StockTradePicks. We are closing in on 3,000 followers on Twitter as well.

One of those better opportunities is Amira Nature Foods Ltd. (ANFI), an extreme value play. All one needs to do to recognize the potential here is to have a look at some of ANFI's financial ratios:













ANFI's P/E is 3. Its forward P/E is 2.2. It trades at about one-third of its book value, with most of that book value being in current assets. There is heavy insider ownership and short shares outstanding is 1.85 million, or about 9% of the float. So there is some potential of a squeeze. EPS and revenue growth is reasonable. There is a target price of $6 from Jefferies from an analyst who has a good track record.

So what gives? Why is this stock so cheap? If you look at the Q1 balance sheet you can see some very interesting and large numbers:
























Accounts receivable is massive but shrinking. Inventory is massive and growing. There is substantial short term debt with costly interest although that is personally guaranteed by the CEO so that should give investors great confidence that the company expects it to be paid off eventually. Large inventories make sense because ANFI is a Basmati rice company and must hold substantial amounts of raw materials and finished goods as part of its distribution and growth plans. Accounts receivable being so large is not ideal, but at least it has been headed in the right direction this past quarter.

ANFI has been beat up since a short attack by a fund called Prescience Point in 2015. ANFI sued this short seller for defamation and won when the short seller's request to throw the case out was denied by the court. ANFI and the short seller settled out of court, with monetary terms undisclosed. Prescience Point no longer has any reports about ANFI on its website; you can see a big gap in reports between 2014 and 2016 when the firm usually has one up every couple of months.

In addition to this, ANFI has been through multiple audits since then and passed a forensic audit by BDO. It is much less likely to be a fraud than the average company out there that hasn't been subject to such an attack and its numbers so thoroughly scrutinized. But now it is even cheaper than before because management has not been communicating with the investing public very much lately, and not a lot of people are interested in rice companies. Until recently:


























For several weeks, ANFI has been drifting downward from over $4.00 on volume that was only a few hundred thousand each day. Then on May 10th the stock nearly halved to $1.65 on 1.9 million volume which is a lot for it, but still nothing volume considering the move down in price and that there was no news to justify it. ANFI then released its Q1 results the next day and that attracted a lot of attention as the numbers were okay, nothing special. But in the context of a $0.26 EPS for the latest quarter and $0.55 EPS for the past nine months, these numbers are very, very good for a $1.65 stock.























The market reacted accordingly with ANFI up 76% to $2.91 on 9.2 million volume. On Monday ANFI gave some of that back, closing at $2.54 on 1.7 million volume. There are very many traders and value investors with eyes on this stock now because of the discount price and higher volume, ourselves included. Given the increased exposure brought on by the volatility and volume and very obvious reason to invest - the P/E is less than 3 - we think that ANFI will return to where it was in fairly short order before the big tank last week. That means a stock price of at least $3.50 and maybe over $4.00. The financials certainly support a move to at least that high and the Jefferies target is $6.00. We recommend that readers keep a close eye on ANFI.

Disclosure: We are long stocks listed in this report.

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