Thursday, 26 April 2018

The Next VTVT-Like Runners And Buyout Candidates

There have been a lot of failed biotech stocks recently, dropping 50% or more in a day on bad news. On April 10, vTv Therapeutics Inc. (VTVT) dropped nearly 80% after announcing Phase 3 study results that didn't meet endpoints. Not only that, but VTVT has negative equity on the balance sheet, so it looked very bleak for the company. That's when it shot up from $0.83 on April 16 to as high as $2.67 on April 18 and has still managed to maintain $2.00 today. We believe that the market is ripe for recovery on beat up biotech stocks and there are two in particular that make strong candidates for a run. Those are Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (CLDX) and Prothena Corporation plc (PRTA). We are up to 588 followers despite not giving out a lot of alerts, a fact that we think is indicative of a diligent and prudent stock picking history. If you like our picks you can follow our blog by clicking the follow button on the top of the left hand panel. You can also follow us on Twitter handle @StockTradePicks.

We will start with CLDX, where we really like the technicals. Check out the price history on VTVT:

































VTVT was in the $0.60's and $0.70's for a week but started to indicate a breakout on April 17 when it closed at $0.83, the highest price it had since the day of the tank. The next day it was off to the races.


Check out CLDX's price history:

























Just like VTVT, CLDX went from a multi-dollar stock and immediately opened at just over $1 and sunk to the $0.70's on April 16, leaving a massive gap. It too struggled for a few trading days but on April 26 it closed at $0.79 and hit as high as $0.81, indicative of a breakout. The trading on April 26 for CLDX is very similar to the trading in VTVT on April 12 when it closed at $0.80. It looks like a breakout on CLDX is imminent as it will challenge the open price on April 16 of $1.05 and will try to at least partially fill the massive gap above $1.00 like VTVT has done so far.

CLDX also has cash per share of $0.99 and book value per share of $1.71 so it has the fundamentals to support a move to at least $1.00. This data is from Yahoo Finance based on year-end 2017 results so there is likely some cash burn in Q1, lowering these numbers a bit, but still well above the current stock price:


CLDX has a larger float than VTVT so we don't expect as violent of a movement, but we think a target of $1.25 to $1.50 is reasonable over the next few trading days.

The next stock, PRTA, has a much more fundamental approach to its potential run, but even the price history suggests recovery as it closed at $11.79 on Thursday. It was up over 7% on lower sell volume, the best close since its fall on April 23.















PRTA's balance sheet data from Yahoo Finance shows total cash per share and book value per share at $10.84 and $10.58 respectively, a bit higher than the stock price, but this data as of December 2017 doesn't tell us the full story and what really makes PRTA a strong buyout candidate.


Celgene (CELG) invested heavily into PRTA on March 20 with a $100 million upfront payment and $50 million share subscription at $42.57 per PRTA share. Assuming some cash burn, that would add another $2-3 cash per share compared to the December numbers seen above. Reading the SEC filing on the exact nature of the deal, PRTA has a chance to earn up to $700 million each on three different neurodegenerative disease targets for up to a $2.1 billion payout from Celgene. That would give Celgene a lot of incentive to consider buying out PRTA at this low price. After all, CELG did just pay $42.57 for shares a little over a month ago. With PRTA trading at around its cash value, why not make a larger offer now while it's this cheap? So watch for the buyout rumors to start swirling as PRTA gets onto more people's radars, because it makes a lot of sense right now. Although there is no guarantee that it will happen, sometimes it's just as good to get into a trade early before market sentiment pushes it up.

Disclosure: We are long stocks listed in this report.

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