Tuesday, 13 March 2018

Pascal Biosciences: The British Connection

We first spoke about Pascal Biosciences Inc. (BIMUF) (PAS.CN) in our post "Pascal Biosciences: The Cannabis Immunotherapy for Cancer?". The stock has moved up from $0.405 to $0.475 since then, but we think it has much higher to go. We have experienced incredible returns for our cannabis-related picks in Canada. In July, we picked Isodiol International (ISOLF) (ISOL.CN) in our articles Isodiol: 10x Undervalued Cannabis Stock Inks Deals With Canopy and Isodiol: A Profitable Cannabis Company. ISOL moved up nearly ten times since then, hitting a high of $2.14 in Canada from $0.23 and sits at $1.36 today. In November we picked Global Cannabis Applications, or GCAC, (FUAPF) (APP.CN) in our article A Cannabis and Blockchain Story when FUAPF was sitting at $0.09. GCAC moved up more than eight times in a couple of months with the U.S. symbol hitting a high of $0.77 and sits at $0.30 now.

We expect a similar type of return for Pascal and HIP.WT mentioned next. If you like our picks make sure to follow our blog by clicking the follow button on the top of the left hand panel. We are up to 490 followers despite not giving out a lot of alerts, a fact that we think is indicative of a diligent and prudent stock picking history. If you would like to share this blog, make sure to use the URL "nasdaqnewsreports.blogspot.mx" as certain spam filters on social media don't let you post blogspot.com addresses.

Pascal closed its private placement last night, and we found something very interesting about that:

"The Company paid a finder's fee to the following parties: Haywood Securities Inc. (comprised of CDN$328,480 and 821,200 finder warrants (the "Finder Warrants")), Regents Park Securities (comprised of CDN$31,200 and 70,000 Finder Warrants), to Mr. Colin Wilson (comprised of CDN$26,400 and 66,000 Finder Warrants), to Canaccord Genuity Corp. (comprised of CDN$10,560 and 26,400 Finder Warrants) and to Leede Jones Gable (comprised of CDN$1,200 and 3,000 Finder Warrants) on a portion of the financing."

It is normal for companies to pay finder's fees as part of their search for money. Haywood and Canaccord are Canadian companies that do this all the time. But what we found interesting is that Regents Park Securities is not one of those firms that typically do Canadian financings. Regents Park Securities is a British firm, with headquarters in London. Most people would find that unusual that a British firm is getting involved in a Canadian listed stock with operations in Seattle. Except that GW Pharma Limited (GWPH), the $3.3 billion firm engaged in discovering, developing, and commercializing cannabinoid prescription medicines is also headquartered in London. We suggested previously that GWPH might be an interested partner for Pascal in developing this novel cancer immunotherapy discovery.

We have been trying to find a greater connection between Regents Park Securities and GWPH, and have not found it yet. We are not saying that there is a definite connection, but this is certainly an unusual turn of events for a Canadian firm to get a British firm to help find money. We encourage other shareholders to do some digging and see if there is a connection there of note. We think that there is a strategic partner in the UK, whether that is GWPH or someone else, and that will bode well for the stock.

Newstrike Warrants: better deal than ever

Newstrike Resources Ltd. Warrants (HIP.WT.CN) was another recent pick of ours, and they represent a better deal than ever as the stock has gone up but the warrants have remained flat. HIP.WT was part of a bought deal financing that Newstrike completed a couple of weeks ago. The strike price is at $1.75 and the warrants expire on February 16, 2020. The warrants have an acceleration clause where the company has the option to move up the expiry to as soon as 15 days after notice if the stock price trades above $2.60 for ten consecutive days. This is not really much of a worry at this point, because if the stock does reach that high, the warrants will be intrinsically worth $0.85 and everyone buying now will be very happy.

The warrants trade out of the money so the key to understanding the value of these warrants is to understand volatility. The more volatility the better, and that works both to the upside and to the downside. The best way to illustrate this is to use an example.

Let's say you have the ability to buy 10,000 HIP shares at $1.20 for $12,000 or 30,000 warrants of HIP.WT at $0.20 for $6,000. You are convinced that this stock will either make it big and trade at $5.00, or blow it and trade at $0.10 in two years. Under the successful scenario, your 10,000 shares are worth $50,000. But (and lets assume for simplicity of the example that the warrants weren't called in early) the 30,000 warrants can be exercised for $3.25 worth of profit per warrant, or $97,500. Even under the accelerated call-in scenario a warrant holder wins because they can always sell their warrants and buy the stock at that time. If the stock price is $2.75 at forced exercise, 30,000 warrants at $1.00 is $30,000, enough to buy 10,900 shares. Plus the $6,000 remaining difference between the original investment of warrants versus shares.

But along with increased upside, downside is also less because the investor put in half the money into the warrants as they would have if they bought the stock. If the stock tanks to $0.10, the warrant holder loses $6,000. The shareholder loses $11,000.

The worst case scenario for the warrant holder is if HIP stays stagnant, or under $1.75, for the next two years. The warrants would expire worthless but the stock holders make some money under this situation. So volatility, both to the upside and to the downside, offers a superior investment trade-off for the investor. Therefore, the higher the expected volatility, the greater the value of the warrants.

This is where it gets to the actual valuation part of HIP.WT. Here is an options calculator chart from CBOE:



And here is the same chart from last week:




The price of HIP of $1.14, strike price of the warrants at $1.75 and days to expiration of 702 are all known inputs. The interest rate is auto-inputted based on number of days, but even if it was 0% that would only impact valuation downwards by a penny - as in other words it is not an important variable. Volatility is the key here. A 100% volatility calculates a $0.4777 value for the warrants, over three times their current price. Conversely, a $0.135 price on HIP.WT implies a volatility of only 44.25%. Both of these numbers have improved slightly than the chart from a week ago, indicating that HIP.WT is at an even better deal. It is very easy to illustrate how ridiculously low a number like that would be on this stock.

Look at WEED's option chain on the Montreal Exchange:


The 30-day historical volatility has been 102.7%. Even the longest-dated options expiring in February 2019 have implied volatility of around 67% on the calls and around 89% on the puts:


WEED is trading at a $6.4 billion market cap in Canada, over ten times higher than HIP's market cap of $550 million. A larger cap stock is going to have much lower volatility than its junior counterpart, so a 100% volatility assumption on HIP when WEED has a long-dated call option implied volatility of around 65% and historical 30-day volatility of 102% seems like a conservative enough assumption. Even using 65% would lead to a fair market value of over $0.26 for HIP.WT.

Disclosure: We are long stocks listed in this report.

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The Cryptocurrency Codex from the Cryptocurrency Institute 

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